Opinion

SENATOR NATASHA'S RECALL – A LITMUS TEST FOR INEC’S INTEGRITY 

By Kabiru S Bako

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) finds itself at the center of yet another political storm with the petition for the recall of Senator Natasha Akpoti-Uduaghan, representing Kogi Central Senatorial District. While the process of recall is constitutionally enshrined, its implementation in Nigeria has historically been fraught with controversy, political maneuvering, and allegations of manipulation. Given the peculiarities of the case, this recall exercise will serve as a critical test of INEC’s credibility and impartiality ahead of the 2027 general elections.

It is no secret that recall petitions in Nigeria have often been weaponized as a political tool rather than a genuine expression of voters' loss of confidence in their representatives. Senator Natasha’s emergence as the legitimate winner of the Kogi Central Senatorial seat was not without resistance. The Election Petitions Tribunal had to overturn an earlier declaration in favor of Abubakar Ohere of the All Progressives Congress (APC), citing clear cases of vote inflation and suppression of her votes by INEC officials. The tribunal not only declared her the rightful winner but also rebuked INEC for its role in manipulating the results.

This raises fundamental questions about the credibility of the recall process. Is this truly a case of voters demanding accountability, or is it a political ploy by aggrieved forces who failed to stop her at the ballot and through the courts? The timing of the petition suggests a continuation of the political battle rather than an organic demand for change from her constituents.

INEC must tread cautiously to ensure that it is not being used as an instrument for political vendetta. The Commission’s insistence on due process, as reflected in its recent statement highlighting the failure of petitioners to provide proper contact details, is commendable. However, it must go further to scrutinize the authenticity of the signatures submitted and the actual motivation behind the recall petition.

With only 26.71% average voter turnout in Nigeria’s 2023 elections, the feasibility of gathering valid signatures from over half of the 474,554 registered voters in Kogi Central must be questioned. Given the high level of voter apathy, it is improbable that more than 237,277 constituents voluntarily participated in this recall petition. INEC must, therefore, ensure that each signature is properly verified using the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) and that the process is completely transparent. Any manipulation, whether by omission or commission, will severely damage the Commission’s already fragile credibility.

The impartiality of INEC is already under intense scrutiny, and how it handles this recall process will either restore or further erode public confidence in its ability to conduct free and fair elections. If the recall is found to be politically motivated and the Commission fails to resist undue pressure, it will reinforce the perception that INEC is susceptible to external influence. This could have dangerous implications for the 2027 general elections, where trust in the electoral umpire will be paramount.

The recall process must not only be free and fair but must also be seen to be so. If INEC allows itself to be used as a tool for political persecution, it will set a dangerous precedent where election losers exploit the recall mechanism to destabilize their opponents. This is why transparency, adherence to the law, and public confidence must remain the guiding principles in this case.

Given the statistical realities of voter engagement in Nigeria, the recall process is unlikely to succeed. The required threshold for a recall is significantly high, and with voter apathy being a persistent challenge, it is improbable that enough verified signatories will emerge to sustain the process. However, the real concern is not whether the recall succeeds or fails, but whether INEC will allow the process to be manipulated by vested interests.

As Nigeria approaches another electoral cycle, INEC has an opportunity to demonstrate its independence and commitment to the principles of democracy. This recall process presents a test of its integrity—one that the Commission cannot afford to fail.

Senator Natasha Akpoti-Uduaghan’s recall petition is more than just a constituency matter; it is a national test of INEC’s credibility. The Commission must be cautious, transparent, and unwavering in its commitment to fairness. Anything short of this will cast a long shadow over its integrity, not just in Kogi Central but across the entire country as Nigeria marches toward 2027.

Kabiru S Bako can be reached on kabirusalihub@gmail.com