Opinion

THE NORTH vs "NICCOLÒ MACHIAVELLI"

By Hamisu Hadejia 

Last week, PBAT awarded several contracts, mostly to be executed in his South-Western region (note: contracts especially for the SW are now awarded in dollars as the naira is apparently too weak a currency for the mega projects continuously being assigned for the region since others especially the north voted (by 60%) their son as President). For instance, last week PBAT approved a $45.3 million contract for the feasibility study and engineering design of a rail route linking four seaports in Nigeria’s western region. 

This is beside the unprecedentedly massive contract worth N15 trillion PBAT already awarded for the construction of the Lagos-Calabar coastal highway.

Even if, in hindsight, you excuse, and consider PBAT's unprecedentedly monotribal concentrations of appointments as tit for tat (which, you must even here admit, is proportionately more than any President has ever come close to), how do you justify PBAT's award (so far) of more than 70% of capital projects to his South(west)ern region, to the almost total exclusion of the North? 

Ruminating over this maltreatment of the North last week, I couldn’t help but genuinely asked myself, “What offense has the North—which contributed at least 60% of the votes that brought PBAT to power—done to PBAT or his kitchen cabinet, to warrant this notorious neglect and malicious marginalization?

Apart from PBAT's approval of the sum of N80 billion for the reconstruction and rehabilitation of Alau Dam in Borno State, I am not aware of any significant capital project PBAT has approved for any state in the north. Or maybe I am not up to date with data on such information, feel free to update me, mates!

In my chit chat with friends and acquaintances (some politically exposed) as well as feelers from the grapevine, an interesting theory has often come up as an, if not the, explanation for PBAT’s maltreatment and marginalization of the North—a region whose votes were instrumental to his becoming a President.

It is argued that having heavily self-funded himself to power, PBAT and his honchos think and believe less in the agency/the sincerity of the (northern) voters in bringing them to power. Hence, notwithstanding the significant percentage of votes they got from the North, they consider it as the result of their efforts at “mobilization” and distribution of “incentives”, not born out of any genuine love or real and reliable investment from the northerners in their project, to warrant any compensation: Something akin to a quid pro quo completely settled during the electoral contests. This logic explains the PBAT's government’s real politik-strategy of engaging, pandering and catering only to the interests of two groups of powerbrokers in the north—the clergy and state Governors, to the exclusion of the overall interests of the region or ordinary masses, who are seen as the unknown quantity in the 2027 political equation of that region, which can be solved once the known quantities are sorted out.

Plausible or not, before our very eyes, hitherto outspoken clerics who, for instance, had threatened fire and brimstones against the government of former President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan for his “injustices” “anti-Northern” posture and “sectional appointments”, have completely gone on the silent mode. In fact, one of such clerics seems to have effectively assumed the role of Joseph of Arimathea for the PBAT government, running from pillar to post, effectively, to justify the unjustifiable and obvious injustices and bad policies against not just the north and northerners but all poor Nigerian masses. Also, we've seen some clerics who have practically  spent their entire career condemning maulid as a hell-bound bid’ah and insulting and mocking its organisers including scholars old enough to be their fathers —appear to have taken up a project many have convincingly argued is politically motivated. Never mind that one of these billionaire clerics recently bought a house worth N1.3 billion! And he has neither a shop in Kwari, Kindiyo, Mubi or Gujunju markets, nor a farm to yield such a return on investment!

Yet, like a flock of sheep, the awam are expected to keep silent as “the good of these clerics far outweigh their evil”. Fair enough, but methinks if only these same billionaire clerics and or their fanatical disciples have been consistent in deploying this good vs evil principle in judging other scholars or people that differ with their perspectives (say on maulud), a lot of fitnah (perhaps including Boko Haram) would have been averted.

Also instructive was last week’s meeting of the so-called “North West Governors Forum” attended by Governors Dikko Umaru Radda (Katsina), Uba Sani (Kaduna), Dauda Lawal (Zamfara), Ahmed Aliyu (Sokoto), and Umar Namadi (Jigawa) where they reportedly expressed support for PBAT's policies. 

“Are these Governors living in a cloud cuckoo land”, I thought to myself. However, reflecting further, I realised that to be fair to him, PBAT has been generous with many state governments/Governors since his assumption of officer; we might just have to do more to hold them accountable. For instance, within PBAT’s 18 months in office, the Uba Sani-led Kaduna state government has reportedly received money in excess N150 billion as “reimbursements, interventions and grants”. But, make what you may of PBAT’s motive for this generosity.

Also last week (or was it the week before last) the news broke about the arrest (or threats thereof) of notable Northern voices known for highlighting many of PBAT’s government’s injustices especially against the North.  Prof Usman Yusuf was rounded right in the midst of a family round table. Hajiya Najatu has a deadline within to apologize or face the consequences. 

Observed the pattern of the strategy?

It is a tripod: 

(i) Pocket the consequential quantities (powerbrokers: the Clergy and Governors); 

(ii) Threaten/arrest the semi-consequential (voices of dissent: Prof Usman and Haj. Naja’atu) and 

(iii) Forget about the inconsequential (the masses or ordinary voters). 

However, warts and all, PBAT is one of the two politicians I doff my hat for, earning my huge respect for their in-depth understanding of power dynamics and pragmatics, even though they might not have formally studied power and politics. PBAT  (and I over the years observed same trait in former Jigawa State Governor Sule Lamido) appears to abide by the Machiavellian dictum that a leader must “be a fox to recognise traps, and a lion to frighten wolves”. In the words of Niccolò Machiavelli, “[t]he lion cannot protect himself from traps, and the fox cannot defend himself from wolves. One must therefore be a fox to recognize traps, and a lion to frighten wolves.” 

Hence, much as I detest the monotribal and neoliberal policies of PBAT-led administration because of the division and suffering such have caused, I have the uneasy feeling that the North/Nigerians might have to bear with this for 8 years. 

You might see and recognise the man we have in power as PBAT. I see a Niccolò Machiavelli!

So the question I genuinely ask myself is: Can the North really, in the circumstances, organize to beat this Machiavelli in 2027? 

The Machiavelli that—was not the choice of his socio-cultural group, the Afenifere; not supported by all four most powerful former Nigerian army Generals; not anointed (some even claim opposed) by the outgoing President from his party; gambled with a same-faith ticket; and lacked a strong, passionate support base and yet—single-handedly stomped his way to the Nigerian Presidency!

If the North can’t, then shouldn't it and its mass of poor children see it fit to beat a retreat and surrender with a view to sorting things out diplomatically with "Niccolò"?. After all, the Hausas would say that "the fight for which defeat is imminent is well worth turning to play". Also, according to the famous Hausa musician, Alh Garba Super, gudun hijira ma wajibi ne, annabi yai hijira daga Makkah ya koma madina” [meaning beating a retreat (emigration) is an obligation [given] the prophet has emigrated from Mecca to Medina”].

I propose this alternative diplomatic solution because Niccolò seems to—at least for now and judging by the apparent—hold all the northern aces/trump cards (the clergy and state Governors). And the veto (sense of anger) historically wielded by the mass northern voters that once powered their spirit of akasa-a-tsare-a-raka appears to have been neutralized by hunger and the test of time.  

But the opposition should still not despair because time, they say, is of the essence in politics, and that politics is a game of continuous alignments and re-alignments. 2027 is still far things to shape differently. However, as things stand, my knees don weak as per as Niccolò and his capacity in the political arena are concerned. 

In any case, Niccolò and his honchos should please temper their treatments of all regions with justice and fairness. They should remember that power is transient and whatever chance they think they have now to mete out unjust treatments to regions or people they might dislike will last, at most only up to 8 years. Thereafter, the table might be turned, although Nigeria's political history has proven that the Northern leaders have never engaged in this in-your-face kind of unequal treatments of peoples/regions.