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APC: BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE

By Ibrahim Danlami Aliyu 

If the presidential election is conducted today, it is unclear if the APC will muscle its way to power with utmost confidence as was achieved in 2015 due to division and wranglings in the party. Or perhaps the current economic conditions.

I am not here to put blame on any individual, rather to provide statistical data that shows our great party's retrogression in the last 12 years of its formation.

For example, in the 2015 presidential election, the APC with Muhammadu Buhari on the ballot polled 15,424,921 votes representing 53.96% , the PDP got 12,853,162 votes representing 44.96% of the total votes cast.

From the 15,424,921 votes APC scored, 12,374,890 votes ( that's over 80%) came from the 19 Northern states including FCT. On the other hand, we got 3,050,031 votes from the 17 Southern states.

Consequently, Jonathan's PDP polled 3,694,920 votes in the North including FCT Abuja and 9,158,242 votes from the South representing 75%.

It is pertinent to note that going into 2015 general election, APC HAD CONTROLLED OF NASARAWA STATE ONLY with former Governor Almakura at the helm of affairs, there were 5 nPDP states ( Imo, Rivers, Adamawa, Sokoto and Kano), who later decamped to the APC, again we had less than 20 out of the 109 senators and less than 50 out of the 360 House of Representatives membership, we did exceedingly well, I will come back to the reasons why I quoted the number of Governors and NASS Members. Before the 2015 election, Muhammadu Buhari had previously established a 12 million plus votes from 2011 election which was his selling point, thereby pushing party stalwarts (Tinubu at the forefront) for his emergence as the party's flag bearer in 2015. Already, there was an established fact that Muhammadu Buhari had a street credibility of 12 million voters with 3 previous election experiences (2003, 2007, 2011)

By 2019 presidential election, APC polled 15,191,847 votes, 300,000 less votes from the previous 2015 election results, PDP also with a Northern presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, secured 11,262,978 votes.

APC had 11,700,033 from the North including FCT Abuja and 3,491,814 from the South.

PDP on the other hand had 5,299,594 in the North and 5,963,384 in the South. Almost an even distribution in votes for the PDP.

Now, 2023 presidential election seems to have sent a big warning or signal depending on one's observations to the APC, and here are some of the reasons why all hands MUST be on deck to put our house in order as soon as possible.

(1) APC secured 8,794,726 votes (down from 15,191,847 votes of 2019, a difference of 6.4 million votes) and APC was declared WINNER. Meaning between 2019 and 2023 presidential election, APC lost 6.4 million votes. That's scary.

(2). PDP on the other hand polled 6,984,520 votes, came second. That's less than 2 million votes.

3. LP secured 6,101,533 votes, was third with less than 2.6 million votes, and 

4. NNPP secured 1,496,687 votes and came fourth.

The implications from these figures for the APC is that, since its formation in 2013, and having won the 2015 and 2019 presidential election, this was the first time in 10 years that the APC was scoring less than 9 million votes in a presidential election (despite winning the election).

Obviously, it was the emergence of Atiku Abubakar (PDP) and Peter Obi (LP) on a different tickets in 2023, that gave us the huge advantage, otherwise it would have been a different ball game. Because, the combined votes of (Atiku and Obi) equal 13,086,053 votes, that's 4,291,327 votes more than the winner, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Remember also that Peter Obi achieved this feat in less than a year to the election.

Again, from the 8,794,726 votes that APC secured, 5,598,686 representing 63.6% came from the 19 Northern states including FCT Abuja, down from 12,374,890 votes that was scored in 2015, that's more than 50% votes lost in the North, the remaining 3,196,040 representing 36.3% came from the 17 southern states.

Another interesting fact is that Peter Obi's LP secured more votes in the North, 2,080,866 than the total votes of Engr Musa Rabiu Kwankwaso's NNPP 1,496,687 votes

Also to note is that Peter Obi's LP polled more votes in the 17 Southern states, 4,020,667 than President Bola Ahmed Tinubu's APC which polled 3,196,040 votes.

In all of these feats that the LP achieved, they had zero Senator and House of Representatives prior to the 2023 presidential election. So, take notes of the impacts of people decamping from one party to another.

Furthermore, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Jigawa, Sokoto, Yobe, Gombe, Zamfara, Bauchi and Kebbi states gave APC a combined 8,015,868 votes in 2015 these figures are 800,000 shorts of what President Bola Ahmed Tinubu polled from 36 states including FCT Abuja, the same 10 states gave APC 6.5 million votes in 2019 and by 2023, APC scored only 4,748,503 votes from these 10 states, meaning APC lost 3,307,365 votes in these 10 states representing over 45% drop in supporting base in the last 8 years. APC should start re-strategizing now.

In general, APC has lost nearly 33.28% of its voting strength and popularity grounds in the last 10 years from the North which is the fulcrum of its voting prowess, while PDP is cementing it with nearly 5% increase over the same period.

Ironically, Senior party leaders of the APC; Muhammadu Buhari, Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Ahmed Lawan (Then Senate President and Speaker) lost their respective states of Katsina, Lagos and Yobe states to the opposition PDP and LP in the 2023 presidential election.

Here is another interesting dimension, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is from Lagos State, same as the then Speaker Femi Gbajabiamila, Super Minister Babatunde Raji Fashola, 3 Senators and 24 House of Representative Members, not to talk of the State House of Assembly Members with 16 Council Chairmen, yet Peter Obi's Labour Party defeated our party, the APC in the last election with zero minister, zero Senator, zero House of reps. Similar scenario happened in Muhammadu Buhari's Katsina state and former Senate President Ahmed Lawan's Yobe state. In fact, to shed more light on 2015 presidential election, APC scored 446,265 votes in Yobe state, PDP got around 18,000 votes but by 2023, PDP won Yobe state with 196,567 votes to APC's 151,459 votes despite being our stronghold.

Again, APC scored 473,543 votes in Borno state during 2015 presidential election, PDP scored 25,000plus votes, but by 2023 and despite being the state from which the APC's Vice presidential candidate, Senator Kashim Ibrahim Shettima came from, APC nearly lost the state by polling 252,282 votes and PDP 190,921 votes, a difference of 62,000,000 votes. This is the same state APC's government did well in addressing Boko Haram and other insurgency in the last 10 years. APC should know something is wrong.

I doubt if there is ANY single Northern state as of today, that APC is guaranteed of scoring 700,000 plus votes at the presidential election level. Any Governor that says so is only looking for midnight allowance. NONE and I stand to be corrected. Yes we have made and cemented gains in Kogi, Edo and Ondo states Governorship election, presidential election however, comes with its aura, impulse and apathy. 

How can APC polled 1,903,999 votes in Kano during 2015 election and polled 517,341 votes in 2023?

How can APC in 2015 polled 792,460 votes in Lagos but scored 572,606 votes in 2023?

How can the APC polled 1,345,441 votes in Katsina in 2015 and got 482,283 in 2023?

How can APC in 2015, polled 1,127,760 votes in Kaduna and scored 399,293 votes in 2023?

The same is for Jigawa, Bauchi, Zamfara, Gombe , Adamawa etc. And don't get it twisted, the opposition is making gains where we faulter.

Does it mean the APC is crumbling? Maybe Yes, maybe No. But the records says YES.

In the last presidential election, the six South West states gave a combined votes of 1,706,801. We must do better for 2027. The south West states MUST do better considering it is the zone of Mr President by polling above 2.5 million votes. These Northern KKKJBZG states must be worked on constructively and sincerely for us to achieve good results come 2027. Specifically, party leaders of Northern extraction MUST sit down holistically and proffer real strategy/direction to improve on the existing figures in 2027. Most of these recent decamped politicians are looking for reelection relevance in 2027, it shouldn't be gauged as real political progress in the party. At least, past experiences has shown that it is not necessarily the number of Governors and legislators that you have, to determine who wins election for the party. 2015 and 2023 has proven so with facts and figures.

The idea of Bola Ahmed Tinubu being a grand master strategist in the game be hanged/discarded not because he is not, but he needs the real numbers to be on our side. Unnecessary fights and insults be checkmated by leaders of the party. Decamping to APC by national assembly members is good but not a yardstick to winning election. The opposition in Nigeria are fragmented at the top but they are having voter apathy at the voting centers.

Ehnm Tinubu knows how to do this and that, bla bla bla bla shouldn't be our strategy to 2027, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu have money to spend shouldn't make you happier, Jonathan's FG had more money in 2015 than the FG of 2023. President Tinubu isn't Jonathan doesn't sound logical to a real politician. Remember that, the best of Real Madrid or Barcelona with good players and Coach can be defeated by Celta Vigo. Also, QPR can beat Liverpool, Arsenal, Manchester United, Chelsea or Manchester City on a bad day despite them having good team. Feedback in politics is essential and the response isn't worth sharing or made public, the people are angry and government MUST quickly address some of these issues before the general election. Let's talk truth to our party leaders.

If the opposition should unite in purpose (PDP or LP) or through another political party towards 2027 election, then they will stand a good chance to giving APC a good run for their money. Remember that Nyesom Wike with his control of the PDP couldn't STOP Atiku Abubakar from winning the presidential ticket in his backyard in Port Harcourt, 2018 and Abuja in 2022.

A stitch at hand, saves nine. Time for sober reflection. This is my ₦2 sincere advice.